Cross-border transfer capacity estimate - User instruction

The advanced filter used on our portal allows a large amount of forecast data to be displayed. The following provides an explanation of cross-border capacity predictions as prepared by ČEPS.

Binding EU legislation stipulates that transmission system operators (TSOs) must publish information which may be of crucial importance for the functioning of the EU internal electricity market. Forecasts of available cross-border capacities for various time periods fall into this category. This concerns both long-term tradable capacity forecast for a year ahead (by monthly breakdown) and short-term forecast (D-1 / intra-day) by hourly breakdown. Since the extended filter allows a wide range of settings, the recommended procedure for finding the required data easily and rapidly is described below.

Published forecasts provide generally indicative values determined by ČEPS which have not been harmonised with ČEPS’s foreign partners. The Company endeavours over the long term to provide market participants with relevant and reliable information; however, time advance lowers both the accuracy and level of certainty of the forecasts; as time advances, forecast value accuracy naturally decreases. Forecasts are based on the latest known information relating to those planned and expected network operating conditions which impact tradable cross-border capacities. Consequently, given actual operating conditions, long-term forecast values in particular can be increased during a daily allocation phase.

ČEPS strives, in compliance with legislative requirements, to offer the maximum amount of available capacity in each relevant allocation phase whilst maintaining network security and reliability (according to ENTSO-E Operational Handbook). The resulting values of cross-border capacities offered in individual allocation phases (yearly, monthly and daily auctions) must be determined with regard to actual conditions in both transmission systems concerned and, consequently, must be harmonised by both TSOs.

With regard to the design of the web portal, forecasts consist of a composition of values already allocated/offered from/to the previous allocation phase and increased values for the following time period. For example, the data series “Allocation” for weekly and daily forecasts includes capacity values allocated at yearly and monthly auction (provided that they are fully used) plus increased values offered at daily auction.

Information on forecasts for cross-border capacities can be divided into the following categories:

  1. Yearly capacity forecast by monthly breakdown
    • Yearly forecast values offered at yearly auction and forecasts for increased, from ČEPS viewpoint, monthly values  (offered at auction).
    • Recommended display:
      Time period – Year
      Aggregation – Month
      Data version – Yearly forecast
       
       
  2. Monthly capacity forecast by daily breakdown
    • Data displayed consists of yearly auction results plus capacity values offered at monthly auction and increased, from ČEPS viewpoint, values for all the calendar days of a given month.
    • Recommended display 1:
      Time period – Year
      Aggregation – Month
      Data version – Monthly forecast
    • Recommended display 2:
      Time period – Month
      Aggregation – Day
      Data version – Monthly forecast
       
  3. Weekly capacity forecast by daily and hourly breakdown
    • The data displayed consists of yearly auction results plus monthly auction results and increased values for individual hours. These values are the result of the harmonisation process with the respective foreign partner and are binding, however, may be changed during the week with regard to the actual operational situation. Since capacity values offered at daily auction are harmonised with some foreign partners as late as on D-2 in the afternoon, such values are not available a week ahead.
    • Recommended display:
      Time period – Week
      Aggregation – Day
      Data version – Weekly forecast
       
  4. Daily capacity forecast by hourly breakdown
    • In a similar way to weekly forecasts, the data displayed consists of yearly auction results plus monthly auction results (capacity allocated) and increased values for individual hours of the following day.
    • Recommended display:
      Time period – Day
      Aggregation – Hour
      Data version – Hourly forecast